CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-06-10T13:09:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jun 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels again today as new Region 2087
(S18E71, Dai/beta-delta) produced an impulsive X1/2b flare at 11/0906
UTC to accompany the X1 flare at 10/1252 UTC. No associated CME is
believed to exist from today's event, though further analysis is
underway. Yesterday's X1 flare had an associated 10 cm radio burst (530
sfu), a Type IV radio sweep, and a partial halo CME first seen at
10/1325 UTC in C2 imagery.  The associated CME's estimated speed was
around 929 km/s and was observed overtaking a previous and slower event
that had already left the Sun.  WSA ENLIL modeling indicates a potential
glancing blow arriving midday on 13 Jun from the combined events.

Regions 2080 (S12W37, Dkc/beta-gamma), 2085 (S20W30, Ekc/beta-gamma),
and 2087 (S19E69, Dsi/beta) remain the spot groups with the greatest
risk for producing notable activity. Three new regions (2088, 2089, and
2090) were numbered during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or
greater) for the forecast period (11-13 Jun) due to flare potential from
Regions 2080, 2085, and 2087.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (11-13 Jun). 
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor or
greater) for the forecast period as Regions 2080 and 2085 transit into a
more connected location.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds increased slightly over the period from approximately
400 km/s to near 620 km/s. Total field ranged from around 2 nT to 8 nT
while the Bz component was variable between +6 nT and -5 nT.  Phi angle
was mostly positive (away) through the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at current levels for days
1-2 (11-12 Jun).  An enhancement is expected approximately midday on day
3 (13 Jun) as a combination of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
and a potential glancing blow from the 10 Jun CME are expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (11-12
Jun).  By midday on day 3 (13 Jun), a combination of CH HSS effects and
a potential glancing blow from the 10 Jun CME is expected around midday
causing active conditions with a chance for minor storming (G1-Minor).

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Jun 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 11-Jun 13 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 11-Jun 13 2014

            Jun 11     Jun 12     Jun 13
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          2     
06-09UT        2          1          1     
09-12UT        2          1          1     
12-15UT        2          1          4     
15-18UT        1          1          4     
18-21UT        1          2          4     
21-00UT        1          2          4     

Rationale: By midday on day 3 (13 Jun), a combination of CH HSS effects
and a potential glancing blow from the 10 Jun CME is expected around
midday causing enhanced geomagnetic conditions with a chance for minor
storming (G1-Minor).

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